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Currently, it's 1:21 pm Sat May 27 2017 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida

Plug Pete

Ike WC is here

  Ike sitting below us and churning.  Barely a cat 1 but with an expanded windfield of TS force winds.  Winds still East around here but slowly turning SE (already 100 deg) . That turn should continue all day . Wind speeds sustained in the lower 30's in our area and near 40's below us in the Keys.  More of the same monster chop we saw yesterday but with more underlying windswell.  Partial cleanup as the winds turn more SE.  No S or SW winds predicted so a complete cleanup not expected.  Tomorrow should be the cleanest day as the SE winds drop . Further out IKe restrengthens in the GOM and sends a nice swell to the West coast (he'll be moving slow enough to send a decent swell). That should last into the weekend but drop off Sunday as Ike moves in Texas (based on current Tracks).  If I wasn't headed to South America I would def be headed over to the west coast again. I'm almost bummed to be leaving when the home turf has served up plenty of excellent surf but it will be tempered by the fact spring time is the best time of year down in Chile ( 10 ft at 16 sec slated for Thursday).  It's turned out to be a great season around here and I hope it continues. We are still due for a clean swell in our area.

Enjoy   Smile

Open Thread Tj

Slop O' Chop on Tap as Ike tracks toward the GoM

UPDATE 9-7-08 11pm: As Ike passes to the South, big chop to get thrown our way.  Oh yeah, ton of political talk on the thread.  Unbelievable John McCain video (it suprised me) in there as well.  Stay safe all - had a drowning at LBTS yesterday.



UPDATE 9-6-08 11PM: About 7pm this evening the first pings of long period swell from Ike started hitting upocast - 16 sec. - pretty sweet! Ft. Pierce buoy is reading due E on the swell direction, that'll probably rotate more ESE as Ike tracks westward. Here's the latest model run, keep in mind that Cuba has 3 significant mountain ranges, one of which tore up Gustav. Depending how Ike interacts with portions of Cuba, depends on what we see in the Gulf. For now, hit it upcoast on Sunday if you can - the earlier you go the less North of Jensen you should have to travel to get some action. Those stuck local, like me, keep an eye on "slot swell" territory for pulses coming through.

UPDATE 9-6-08 5PM: Yeah! Miami is now out of the "Cone of Terror". The Miami Herald really drove a panic into people with the way they covered Ike since Wed. - it was friggin almost 1500 miles away! Yesterday's Herald headline while most of us were in search of surf was priceless: "Ike moving south - Florida should prepare not panic" Ooops - Too Late!

BTW - If you haven't acted on that issue - DO IT NOW (www.dontrigflroida.org), the U.S. House is voting next week and the Senate the following week. Sources say without some concern from Floridians, our State and NO OTHER will be locked into drilling. Yeah, like that's a solution to fuel prices - election year pandering is more like it. For those who wonder how bad it can get from driling - Check this drilling caused mud volcano that's been going off for 2 years in Indo - buried an entire Village.


Forecast Tj

Hanna Makes Her Move - Ike Threatens

UPDATE: 9-5-08 @ 8:30am
Good on J-Dog and Roger Dodger working through Pete to give us the spot updates - all in the thread.  Here's the latest Quikscat.


9-4-08 10:00pm

Alright folks, time to hit it, send in those posts on what you find. Oh yeah, for those who wonder how bad it can get with drilling? Check it - Mud Volcano, spewing for almost 2 yrs!

Forecast Tj

Will we get a Hanna "slot swell"?

UPDATE: Surf's down, Hanna's weakened and our chopfest is barely rideable. Hanna's predicted to get her act together, make Cat 1 status as she starts moving north.  Keep an eye on the Quikscat to judge potential for both a "slot swell" and any North Swell shooting down towards SoBe once Hanna gets above the Bahamas.



UPDATE: Folks in the thread were asking whether SoBe will get waves when Hanna lifts N of the Bahamas. In her current state, I would say "no", the NW quadrant of the storm is weak, graphic below explains. This is reminiscent of Hurricane Ophelia that sat in our swell window and gave nothing to SoBe.

UPDATE: Winds started kickin through the night, predicted NE 15-20kt today, ramping up higher through the week. Possible New Providence Channel swell underneath the chop. Currently, we're not in Hanna's track but the "Cone of Death" does include us - so be prepared in case she hangs an Andrew style left. If Hanna stays on the model track she won't lift north of us until Thursday-Friday. By that time, her northern half, which the last couple Quikscats are showing as the meatier part of the storm, will be above the Bahamas with a fairly significant fetch aimed at tFL

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Recent Observations
from: Sat 27 May 17 01:00 pm
Spot st. augustine
canaveral east
ft. pierce
lake worth
fowey rocks
Wed 19 Feb 14 07:00 am
Observation is 28637 hours old
Sat 27 May 17 01:00 pm
Sat 27 May 17 01:00 pm
Sat 27 May 17 01:00 pm
Sat 27 May 17 12:00 pm
Sat 27 May 17 01:00 pm
Wind ----NW (320)
@ 2 kt
S (200)
@ 2 kt
n/a (n/a)
@ -- kt
n/a (n/a)
@ -- kt
S (160)
@ 9 kt
Atmp/SST ----76.3 F/76.1 F78.8 F/79.5 Fn/a F/73.6 F82.2 F/81.9 F86.9 F/82.4 F
Significant Waves --------1.3 ft @ 8 sec----
Wind Waves ----0.3 ft @ 2.4 sec0.7 ft @ 3.8 sec1 ft @ 7.7 sec----
Swell ----2 ft @ 8.3 sec1.6 ft @ 8.3 sec0.3 ft @ 11.1 sec----
from: 1030 am edt sat may 27 2017
Synopsis: ....a weak front over the atlantic waters will become diffuse late today as high pressure builds over south florida the remainder of the memorial day weekend. the high will then shift north into central florida by the middle of next week. winds will be driven largely by land and sea breeze interactions through sunday, with light winds at night and higher winds approaching 15 knots with sea breezes each afternoon, mainly near shore. southeast wind pattern becomes established across the local waters monday through wednesday. seas will be mainly 3 feet or less. .gulf stream hazards...none. the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 27, 2017 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 19 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
__/(__/(__/(__( rest of today tonight sunday sunday night
windeast southeast 5 to 10 knotssouth southeast 5 to 10 knotssouth 10 to 15 knotssouth 5 to 10 knots
seas 2 to 3 ft


(click on a map to enlarge)
Tropical Surface Analysis
Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis Map
created: Saturday May 27, 2017 01:05 pm
Tropical Satellite
Tropical Atlantic Satellite Map from the Weather Channel
created: Saturday May 27, 2017 01:02 pm
WW3 Heights
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave height forecast
created: Saturday May 27, 2017 01:10 pm
Click here for animation
WW3 Periods
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave period forecast
created: Saturday May 27, 2017 01:11 pm
Click here for animation


Miami Tides
Tides at Miami - Click graph for other locations