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Currently, it's 7:57 am Tue Oct 25 2016 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida

Report Tj

SWEEEEEEET!!! Now it's time to fight in Bal Harbour!!!!

UPDATE on the Bal Harbour Fight! I figured if I laid it all on the line and went in looking super pisssed off it might help. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!

Wooooooooohooooooooo!!!!! Bertha delivers the goods! Soooooo pumped with surf stoke, can't wait till that Town Hall Meeting Tuesday night to let it come pouring out! Decided to cut up to South Hutchinson Island with the wifey for a 9th Anniversary weekend and SCORED! Did anyone expect those offshores to last ALL weekend? Friggin amazing!!!!

Behind the hotel was weak and small but goofable for some fun - yet rollin up the road to hit Ft. Pierce Inlet and glad I stopped in at an ole' secret spot I've been going to since High School (and has changed ALOT with County facility upgrades and Frances/Jeanne impacts). Could not believe the OH sets coming in for only a couple miles up the road! Knew I got totally lucky with the "instinct stop" when I heard the the locals in the water thanking each other for the coconut tele call "Ft. Pierce is NOT the spot for this swell".

Did I metion it was CLEAN - like SUPER CLEAN! Pete's pic is spot on! Alright - now it's time to be thankful for the surf and do our part to ensure others can have places to surf in the future. Yeah DAT right y'all know the wave droughts we been through, time to give back to keep the good times rollin - REPRESENT!

Here's the DEALEO, FDOT has called a public Meeting for TOMORROW - Tuesday, July 15th - 7-9pm @ the Gwen Margolis Community Center - 15590 NE 123rd St. North Miami. They're thinking of making the entire parking lot under the Baker's Haulover Bridge permit parking only! This is SERIOUS SHIT - Show some fight in you dog!

Forecast Tj

Da Bertha Update & Surfrider Throwin Down!

Alright, Bertha is moving parallel to Grand Bahama and still a Category 1 -so that's good.  Problem is the Quikscat is in the blackout zone and can't get a decent view of what the wind fetch angle, length and speed looks like - bummer.  Fortunately for me it's the 9th wedding anniversary with the wifey tomorrow and she wants to get away from Miami - "would upcoast be ok dear??????"  :)

Alrighty, Part Deux to this post is if you can find away to try and score waves from Bertha - you can find a way to be at the FDOT meeting Tuesday night.  I got 2 years of my life invested into fightin for beach access in Bal Harbour (special place for me after the solo session score the mornin of Hurricane Jeanne) I'll fer sure be there.  Need back up though or it's all for not - check out the Evite and commit to savin a wave  - for all to enjoy!

Forecast tc

Big Bertha Forecast

Former major contributor to the site, James Jolly, has sent along his forecast for Bertha. Enjoy!

7/8/08 Bertha forecast:

First major storm of the season so not surprising a bit of froth developing out there amongst the boys. I'm chalking up my state of calmness to the fact I got lucky in PR in march, got lucky with 10 overhead NE swells in 9 weeks in March/April/early May at home, got a great week with 3 swells in Central American in June, and just came off a week's family vacation road trip last night. Normally, I'd be freaking by now but this year is different for me and while I'm stoked for an early season major, I'm also going to sit back and see what happens before I go crazy trying to chase big bertha down.

She spiked her winds yesterday but also took a turn last night and appears to be falling apart a bit early today. Now, surfline’s NGP chart above is way off with the wind forecast (showing only a pocket of 50kt winds when Hurricane center was calling 115mph) so I wonder if their lola projections are also going to be off for sizes? At least using in this chart as a timetable, we should start seeing a small height/ peak period 13 second swell in 2 1/2 days or Thursday and the peak of the swell overnight Friday night in the 4 feet @ 11 second range. It blew up yesterday while over the 3 day out mark so I’d guess late Friday into early Saturday would follow suit with the biggest waves from approx 95 to 100 degrees. Basically an east swell with a slight touch of ESE.

Here is LOLA’s take on the E swell: Basically looking like 3-4 feet at 11 seconds which typically translates out to chest to shoulder high with a few plus sets at the best exposures like Brevard up to New Smyrna.

Not any bigger, you thinking? Well, if you check the wind history on the storm,
(click here) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/wavetrak/windnatl/wi...
the winds have not really been pointed at our window as good as you might think. As this storm has butted up against the high over the last 24 hours, and stronger winds developed, it’s gradient has set up more of a NE flow than an East flow along the topside of the storm in the strongest right front quadrant and the second strongest left front quadrant. As a result, I don’t see us fully realizing the benefit of yesterday’s pulse of winds and this would also go for locations north of Florida like Hatteras and New England that are really looking for more SE flow than ENE flow. Now, before the storm started the Northern jog yesterday into last night, we did have a few days of E to ESE winds in the window so regardless of whether or not this storm surged yesterday, in my opinion, we would still see basically the same amount of swell had the system remained at the same strength and track as the several days prior. Also, if you are thinking major New Providence Channel East swell for Delray like we saw off Isabel back in 03?, I don’t see that happening either as this system is weaker and much further out to sea than Isabel was and the track is not heading straight at this microscopic window.

So, the stage has already been set for act 1 of Bertha. Unless the models are way off in forecasting that spike in winds yesterday and the wind direction model is way off showing that NE flow topside of storm, I don’t think the size forecast will vary that much from what it’s showing today. So, make your plans accordingly for Act 1 which should run from Friday through about Monday.

Act 2??
You can take a peep at FSU’s site and see what each of the available models are calling for Bertha. In looking at these and coming up with an average, which is what the hurricane center basically does, the net result is that we may see the swell transition to more of an east north east as we get into early next week. Unless the storm stalls out, we will not likely see much size as this swell transitions. If it stalls, as the NGP model suggests, then we might be on for Act 2. Should this happen in a few days as the NGP is suggesting, then we will need to revisit the forecast for mid to later next week
Here’s the NGP track:

Otherwise, there appears to be another tropical wave in line that could develop and follow a similar track about a week out. I think we will get the best of Bertha Act 1 in Florida this weekend and it will then be the mid atlantic and later New England who may get the best shot at waves as act 1 closes mid next week. As a total off the wall item, only since I was looking at Namibia, Africa’s wave forecast knowing a friend is over there surfing now, new england should likely see some southern Hemi SE swell around the middle of the month (around 3 feet at 18) set up off a storm retrograding near Cape town over the next few days). Not that it’s worth chasing a swell this small but if you happen to live on Nantucket or are visiting up that way, it would certainly be worth watching out for some super long lines mid month post Bertha. If they can get away from the gusty side/sideoff winds, Namibia’s forecast is looking downright insane with 12-15 foot @ 11 second energy from the SW/SSW for the next several days. I look forward to seeing the photos in the mags sometime soon.


Open Thread Tj

Bullshit in Bal Harbour & Skate 'Plaza' in Miami Beach?

First up, FDOT has called a public Meeting for Tuesday, July 15th - 7-9pm @ the Gwen Margolis Community Center - 15590 NE 123rd St. North Miami. Here's a link to a letter FDOT recently forwarded - THIS IS SERIOUS SHIT - they're thinking of making the entire parking lot under the Baker's Haulover Bridge permit parking only! A HUGE showing by the surfing, fishing, and recreational community will get a BIG message across - I'LL FER SURE BE AT THIS MEETNG, DON'T LET ME DOWN - NEED YOU THERE TOO!


Second, City of Miami Beach wants to build a "Skate Plaza" their current proposal is a pretty weak design but we can push for improvement. They're having a meeting Tuesday, July 22nd 6pm at our good ole Miami Beach Botanical Garden (home to our Surfrider movies) about a new location they've chosen behind the Miami Beach Convention Center Loading Dock. Here's a Google Map to show you where. Heere's the dealeeo - the historic preservation folks want to kill the Skate Plaza thing, hell if you can't build a skate plaza behind a loading dock - where the f*ck can you??? Check-out the flyer about this, I hope IWS - Quik - Liquid Tube - M.I.A - Fritz's - UNIV and all the other shops jump on this, show up and bring the troops. This an opportunity to show that skating is good business AND the location is awesome being right across from Miami Beach High.


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Recent Observations
from: Tue 25 Oct 16 07:00 am
Spot st. augustine
canaveral east
ft. pierce
lake worth
fowey rocks
Wed 19 Feb 14 07:00 am
Observation is 23495 hours old
Fri 07 Oct 16 04:00 am
Observation is 435 hours old
Sat 20 Aug 16 10:00 am
Observation is 1581 hours old
Fri 07 Oct 16 06:00 am
Observation is 433 hours old
Tue 25 Oct 16 07:00 am
Tue 25 Oct 16 07:00 am
Wind ----------------NE (60)
@ 12.2 kt
NE (40)
@ 15.1 kt
Atmp/SST ----------------76.1 F/79.5 F77 F/81.1 F
Significant Waves --------------------
Wind Waves --------------------
Swell --------------------
from: 344 am edt tue oct 25 2016
...small craft advisory in effect from this evening through friday evening...
Synopsis: ....east northeast flow will increase today over the coastal waters to 15-20 kt. by tonight winds will increase further to 20-25 kt with higher gusts possible. small craft advisories are in effect through friday evening. waves/seas will be increasing as well, especially from wednesday into thursday. there will be a chance of showers from wednesday through this weekend. .gulf stream hazards...waves/seas increasing to 6 to 9 feet in the gulf stream from wednesday into thursday. in addition, a gusty east northeast wind will lead to choppy conditions for mariners. the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 20, 2016 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 8 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
__/(__/(__/(__( today tonight wednesday wednesday night
windeast northeast 15 to 20 knotseast northeast 15 to 20 knotseast northeast 15 to 20 knotseast northeast 20 to 25 knots
seas 2 to 4 ft 3 to 5 ft 5 to 7 ft 7 to 9 ft


(click on a map to enlarge)
Tropical Surface Analysis
Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis Map
created: Tuesday October 25, 2016 07:34 am
Tropical Satellite
Tropical Atlantic Satellite Map from the Weather Channel
created: Tuesday October 25, 2016 05:14 am
WW3 Heights
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave height forecast
created: Tuesday October 25, 2016 07:35 am
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WW3 Periods
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave period forecast
created: Tuesday October 25, 2016 07:36 am
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Miami Tides
Tides at Miami - Click graph for other locations