Quick Links: Buoy Obs-----Tides-----Maps

Currently, it's 3:08 pm Thu Apr 19 2018 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida

Open Thread Tj

Slop O' Chop on Tap as Ike tracks toward the GoM

UPDATE 9-7-08 11pm: As Ike passes to the South, big chop to get thrown our way.  Oh yeah, ton of political talk on the thread.  Unbelievable John McCain video (it suprised me) in there as well.  Stay safe all - had a drowning at LBTS yesterday.



UPDATE 9-6-08 11PM: About 7pm this evening the first pings of long period swell from Ike started hitting upocast - 16 sec. - pretty sweet! Ft. Pierce buoy is reading due E on the swell direction, that'll probably rotate more ESE as Ike tracks westward. Here's the latest model run, keep in mind that Cuba has 3 significant mountain ranges, one of which tore up Gustav. Depending how Ike interacts with portions of Cuba, depends on what we see in the Gulf. For now, hit it upcoast on Sunday if you can - the earlier you go the less North of Jensen you should have to travel to get some action. Those stuck local, like me, keep an eye on "slot swell" territory for pulses coming through.

UPDATE 9-6-08 5PM: Yeah! Miami is now out of the "Cone of Terror". The Miami Herald really drove a panic into people with the way they covered Ike since Wed. - it was friggin almost 1500 miles away! Yesterday's Herald headline while most of us were in search of surf was priceless: "Ike moving south - Florida should prepare not panic" Ooops - Too Late!

BTW - If you haven't acted on that issue - DO IT NOW (www.dontrigflroida.org), the U.S. House is voting next week and the Senate the following week. Sources say without some concern from Floridians, our State and NO OTHER will be locked into drilling. Yeah, like that's a solution to fuel prices - election year pandering is more like it. For those who wonder how bad it can get from driling - Check this drilling caused mud volcano that's been going off for 2 years in Indo - buried an entire Village.


Forecast Tj

Hanna Makes Her Move - Ike Threatens

UPDATE: 9-5-08 @ 8:30am
Good on J-Dog and Roger Dodger working through Pete to give us the spot updates - all in the thread.  Here's the latest Quikscat.


9-4-08 10:00pm

Alright folks, time to hit it, send in those posts on what you find. Oh yeah, for those who wonder how bad it can get with drilling? Check it - Mud Volcano, spewing for almost 2 yrs!

Forecast Tj

Will we get a Hanna "slot swell"?

UPDATE: Surf's down, Hanna's weakened and our chopfest is barely rideable. Hanna's predicted to get her act together, make Cat 1 status as she starts moving north.  Keep an eye on the Quikscat to judge potential for both a "slot swell" and any North Swell shooting down towards SoBe once Hanna gets above the Bahamas.



UPDATE: Folks in the thread were asking whether SoBe will get waves when Hanna lifts N of the Bahamas. In her current state, I would say "no", the NW quadrant of the storm is weak, graphic below explains. This is reminiscent of Hurricane Ophelia that sat in our swell window and gave nothing to SoBe.

UPDATE: Winds started kickin through the night, predicted NE 15-20kt today, ramping up higher through the week. Possible New Providence Channel swell underneath the chop. Currently, we're not in Hanna's track but the "Cone of Death" does include us - so be prepared in case she hangs an Andrew style left. If Hanna stays on the model track she won't lift north of us until Thursday-Friday. By that time, her northern half, which the last couple Quikscats are showing as the meatier part of the storm, will be above the Bahamas with a fairly significant fetch aimed at tFL

Forecast Tj

SURF'S UP! Time for a new Thread

Well, so much for the Quikscat and the NDBC Buoy. Quikscat is jammed on the same image, don't know what's up there and the Buoy #42003 disappeared (again) yesterday at 10am after a 38.3ft @13.8sec. final reading.

Pete's over in Bradenton filing reports within the thread. Here's the latest from NHC Discussion about Gustav as he heads into soutern LA. Though the eye isn't hitting New Orleans, the storm surge (upper right quadrant of storm) is making a direct hit at the weakest point to the coastal barrier levees.


100 kt is a generous estimate for the current
intensity. WSR-88D radar images show that the eye wall is open
over the southern semicircle...perhaps due to the mid- to
upper-level dry air intrusion from the south that was discussed
earlier. In fact...the Air Force hurricane hunters did not report
an eyewall.


Wind chop still here in SFL if folks want some on the holiday my friends. 


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Recent Observations
from: Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Spot st. augustine
canaveral east
ft. pierce
lake worth
fowey rocks
Wed 19 Feb 14 07:00 am
Observation is 36487 hours old
Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Thu 19 Apr 18 02:00 pm
Wind ----S (170)
@ 2 kt
SW (220)
@ 9.8 kt
n/a (n/a)
@ -- kt
SE (150)
@ 10 kt
n/a (n/a)
@ -- kt
Atmp/SST ----74.7 F/74.7 F74.7 F/73.6 Fn/a F/75.9 F75 F/78.4 F77.5 F/77.5 F
Significant Waves --------1.3 ft @ 15 sec----
Wind Waves ----1.6 ft @ 3.8 sec2.6 ft @ 4.5 sec1 ft @ 9.1 sec----
Swell ----1 ft @ 8.3 sec2 ft @ 8.3 sec0.7 ft @ 15.4 sec----
Synopsis: ....high pressure over the eastern u.s. and western atlantic will combine with low pressure over the western caribbean to bring moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes to the area along with scattered showers and a isolated thunderstorms. tropical storm nate will pass west of the area saturday, bringing fresh southeast winds to the offshore gulf waters. seas will exhibit a moderate chop with significant wave heights generally remaining at or below 6 feet. .gulf stream hazards...none. the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream is unavailable at this time.
__/(__/(__/(__( today tonight saturday saturday night


(click on a map to enlarge)
Tropical Surface Analysis
Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis Map
created: Thursday April 19, 2018 03:05 pm
Tropical Satellite
Tropical Atlantic Satellite Map from the Weather Channel
created: Thursday April 19, 2018 03:02 pm
WW3 Heights
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave height forecast
created: Thursday April 19, 2018 01:35 pm
Click here for animation
WW3 Periods
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave period forecast
created: Thursday April 19, 2018 01:36 pm
Click here for animation


Miami Tides
Tides at Miami - Click graph for other locations