Currently, it's 12:29 pm Tue Apr 25 2017 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida
Forecast from tcPosted July 8th, 2008 02:30 PM
Former major contributor to the site, James Jolly, has sent along his forecast for Bertha. Enjoy!
7/8/08 Bertha forecast:
First major storm of the season so not surprising a bit of froth developing out there amongst the boys. I'm chalking up my state of calmness to the fact I got lucky in PR in march, got lucky with 10 overhead NE swells in 9 weeks in March/April/early May at home, got a great week with 3 swells in Central American in June, and just came off a week's family vacation road trip last night. Normally, I'd be freaking by now but this year is different for me and while I'm stoked for an early season major, I'm also going to sit back and see what happens before I go crazy trying to chase big bertha down.
She spiked her winds yesterday but also took a turn last night and appears to be falling apart a bit early today. Now, surfline’s NGP chart above is way off with the wind forecast (showing only a pocket of 50kt winds when Hurricane center was calling 115mph) so I wonder if their lola projections are also going to be off for sizes? At least using in this chart as a timetable, we should start seeing a small height/ peak period 13 second swell in 2 1/2 days or Thursday and the peak of the swell overnight Friday night in the 4 feet @ 11 second range. It blew up yesterday while over the 3 day out mark so I’d guess late Friday into early Saturday would follow suit with the biggest waves from approx 95 to 100 degrees. Basically an east swell with a slight touch of ESE.
Here is LOLA’s take on the E swell: Basically looking like 3-4 feet at 11 seconds which typically translates out to chest to shoulder high with a few plus sets at the best exposures like Brevard up to New Smyrna.
Not any bigger, you thinking? Well, if you check the wind history on the storm,
(click here) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/wavetrak/windnatl/wi...
the winds have not really been pointed at our window as good as you might think. As this storm has butted up against the high over the last 24 hours, and stronger winds developed, it’s gradient has set up more of a NE flow than an East flow along the topside of the storm in the strongest right front quadrant and the second strongest left front quadrant. As a result, I don’t see us fully realizing the benefit of yesterday’s pulse of winds and this would also go for locations north of Florida like Hatteras and New England that are really looking for more SE flow than ENE flow. Now, before the storm started the Northern jog yesterday into last night, we did have a few days of E to ESE winds in the window so regardless of whether or not this storm surged yesterday, in my opinion, we would still see basically the same amount of swell had the system remained at the same strength and track as the several days prior. Also, if you are thinking major New Providence Channel East swell for Delray like we saw off Isabel back in 03?, I don’t see that happening either as this system is weaker and much further out to sea than Isabel was and the track is not heading straight at this microscopic window.
So, the stage has already been set for act 1 of Bertha. Unless the models are way off in forecasting that spike in winds yesterday and the wind direction model is way off showing that NE flow topside of storm, I don’t think the size forecast will vary that much from what it’s showing today. So, make your plans accordingly for Act 1 which should run from Friday through about Monday.
You can take a peep at FSU’s site and see what each of the available models are calling for Bertha. In looking at these and coming up with an average, which is what the hurricane center basically does, the net result is that we may see the swell transition to more of an east north east as we get into early next week. Unless the storm stalls out, we will not likely see much size as this swell transitions. If it stalls, as the NGP model suggests, then we might be on for Act 2. Should this happen in a few days as the NGP is suggesting, then we will need to revisit the forecast for mid to later next week
Here’s the NGP track:
Otherwise, there appears to be another tropical wave in line that could develop and follow a similar track about a week out. I think we will get the best of Bertha Act 1 in Florida this weekend and it will then be the mid atlantic and later New England who may get the best shot at waves as act 1 closes mid next week. As a total off the wall item, only since I was looking at Namibia, Africa’s wave forecast knowing a friend is over there surfing now, new england should likely see some southern Hemi SE swell around the middle of the month (around 3 feet at 18) set up off a storm retrograding near Cape town over the next few days). Not that it’s worth chasing a swell this small but if you happen to live on Nantucket or are visiting up that way, it would certainly be worth watching out for some super long lines mid month post Bertha. If they can get away from the gusty side/sideoff winds, Namibia’s forecast is looking downright insane with 12-15 foot @ 11 second energy from the SW/SSW for the next several days. I look forward to seeing the photos in the mags sometime soon.
Open Thread from TjPosted July 3rd, 2008 02:58 PM
First up, FDOT has called a public Meeting for Tuesday, July 15th - 7-9pm @ the Gwen Margolis Community Center - 15590 NE 123rd St. North Miami. Here's a link to a letter FDOT recently forwarded - THIS IS SERIOUS SHIT - they're thinking of making the entire parking lot under the Baker's Haulover Bridge permit parking only! A HUGE showing by the surfing, fishing, and recreational community will get a BIG message across - I'LL FER SURE BE AT THIS MEETNG, DON'T LET ME DOWN - NEED YOU THERE TOO!
Second, City of Miami Beach wants to build a "Skate Plaza" their current proposal is a pretty weak design but we can push for improvement. They're having a meeting Tuesday, July 22nd 6pm at our good ole Miami Beach Botanical Garden (home to our Surfrider movies) about a new location they've chosen behind the Miami Beach Convention Center Loading Dock. Here's a Google Map to show you where. Heere's the dealeeo - the historic preservation folks want to kill the Skate Plaza thing, hell if you can't build a skate plaza behind a loading dock - where the f*ck can you??? Check-out the flyer about this, I hope IWS - Quik - Liquid Tube - M.I.A - Fritz's - UNIV and all the other shops jump on this, show up and bring the troops. This an opportunity to show that skating is good business AND the location is awesome being right across from Miami Beach High.
IF Y'ALL WANT RESPECT YOU GOTTA SHOW UP AND FIGHT FOR IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Plug from PetePosted June 28th, 2008 08:46 AM
Thanks to all who showed up and supported the Surfrider movie event last night. A good time was had by all. Great to see so many familiar faces and locals both past and present. The wine and spirits were flowing and the food went fast. Special thanks to Mike Adams and Lucie Bejamin for helping me out with the food production. Film was great, Wilder has come a long way since I first saw his flicks years back. I particularly liked the helmet and board cams on Gerry Burdine's rides. Not to mention the smoooth ripping by Dave-O and others. Cache I hope you liked the Reserva Wine i turned you onto.
Not much on the wave front but patience my friends, soon enough
Again thanks for supporting, Enjoy
Plug from TjPosted June 23rd, 2008 05:11 PM
>>>FLASH<<<< The menu is being calculated now so PLEASE buy your tickest now so we can get a head count for food and drinks. We don't wan't to get too much or worse, too little.
Yo Brothers and Sisters I am back from the dead! Been travelling the State working on getting ocean outfalls closed, implementing a National Ocean Policy and flat out trying to save the planet in whatever way I can. So I am ready to cut loose this Friday for the Surfrider Movie Night. I've been blown away by how much the local crew has been doing and none of it is possible without the community coming together, sharing a little moola for a good time - giving the team the resources they need to do dune restorations, children's coloring books, beach clean-ups, fighting for beach access. So buy a ticket for yourself and and a friend and know that you helped Surfrider do the good things they do.
Also, you just might win one of those golden gift certificates from the New Times Best Rated Surf Shop in Miami - Island Water Sports. FYI - Scott is having his SUPER SUMMER SALE starting the day after the Surfrider Movie - Sat 10-6pm - Sun 11-6pm. EVERYTHING in the store 20% to 60% off and $50 off new surfboards (Hey Scott - does that include the SUP board I need - he, he , he, he!)