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Currently, it's 4:53 am Sat Feb 24 2018 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida

Forecast Tj

Will we get a Hanna "slot swell"?

UPDATE: Surf's down, Hanna's weakened and our chopfest is barely rideable. Hanna's predicted to get her act together, make Cat 1 status as she starts moving north.  Keep an eye on the Quikscat to judge potential for both a "slot swell" and any North Swell shooting down towards SoBe once Hanna gets above the Bahamas.



UPDATE: Folks in the thread were asking whether SoBe will get waves when Hanna lifts N of the Bahamas. In her current state, I would say "no", the NW quadrant of the storm is weak, graphic below explains. This is reminiscent of Hurricane Ophelia that sat in our swell window and gave nothing to SoBe.

UPDATE: Winds started kickin through the night, predicted NE 15-20kt today, ramping up higher through the week. Possible New Providence Channel swell underneath the chop. Currently, we're not in Hanna's track but the "Cone of Death" does include us - so be prepared in case she hangs an Andrew style left. If Hanna stays on the model track she won't lift north of us until Thursday-Friday. By that time, her northern half, which the last couple Quikscats are showing as the meatier part of the storm, will be above the Bahamas with a fairly significant fetch aimed at tFL

Forecast Tj

SURF'S UP! Time for a new Thread

Well, so much for the Quikscat and the NDBC Buoy. Quikscat is jammed on the same image, don't know what's up there and the Buoy #42003 disappeared (again) yesterday at 10am after a 38.3ft @13.8sec. final reading.

Pete's over in Bradenton filing reports within the thread. Here's the latest from NHC Discussion about Gustav as he heads into soutern LA. Though the eye isn't hitting New Orleans, the storm surge (upper right quadrant of storm) is making a direct hit at the weakest point to the coastal barrier levees.


100 kt is a generous estimate for the current
intensity. WSR-88D radar images show that the eye wall is open
over the southern semicircle...perhaps due to the mid- to
upper-level dry air intrusion from the south that was discussed
earlier. In fact...the Air Force hurricane hunters did not report
an eyewall.


Wind chop still here in SFL if folks want some on the holiday my friends. 


Forecast Tj

Gustav on track to be a MAJOR Hurricane

UPDATE - Pete and Cpick nailing the forecast in the thread - check it out!

Alright little rant here:

I'm not too into this Presidential campaign, been more annoyed with McCain's BS about offshore drilling doing anything to help fuel prices but that's about it. Anyway, was coming home from the gun range last night from a little target practice and it dawned on me "tonight the first black man ever is going to be nominated to run for President of the United States". Being a bit of a history nut, hell studied history and politics for 4 years in undergrad I sensed watching that speech would be watching history, something I would reflect on when I'm old, gray and wondering how this crazy world has changed so fast; kinda like my Grandma's been doin while I've been sitting with her in the hospital these past couple days.

Well, for those who watched Obama's speech it was worth it, the dude can speak. That they had the foresight to schedule it on the 45th Anniversary of MLK's 'I have a Dream' speech, shows just how organized and together that campagin is. I was blown away that almost 90,000 people made the trip to Denver, crammed that stadium tighter than a Broncos AFC Championship game AND were stoked to do it, to watch history! Whether he wins or loses, the dude gets props from me.


POST 8/27 - Yo-Yo, need everyone to get on it with this Offshore Drilling nonsense. I kid you not, this thing is moving fast, in 13 days Congress takes this up and votes shortly after. Click the pic to do something about it. MOST IMPORTANTLY, if you own a business or know somebody who owns a business - ask them to join our Business Sign-On letter about drilling.

Back to your regularly scheduled GUSTAV coverage:

The NHS discussion for 5pm the 27th has Gustav on a similar track but is starting to throw out the idea that in 5 days the ridge over Florida holding Gustav souoth of Cuba will weaken. That adds a host of issues to the equation on where Gustav goes, they primarily note his forward speed will slow - that happens over Cuba he gets torn apart - over water he most likely strengthens. More importantly, that leaves a TON of guesstimation on where Gustav goes after 5 days. Anybody with better sense of what patterns are developing in the Jet Stream to bring a weak front or something of that nature through and kick this Florida's way - please chime in

Post from 5/25/08

Folks who've seen these Yucatan Channel storms know the current through there is like rocket fuel for storms when the upper atmosphere conditions are favorable. Good ole shrimpcreole who moved to the Panhandle should score good if Gustav tracks as predicted, that 4kt north Yucatan current also throws a swell like an aircraft carrier catapults jets - we'll see.

Oh and of course no f'n drilling off Florida's coast - wouldn't even be an issue if it weren't an election year - wedge issue politics suck! www.dontrigflorida.org - site rocks!


Open Thread wyatt


ARGUEMENT: Offshore Drilling in Florida will lower our gas prices.

FACT: Alaska produces BY FAR the most oil of any state and has the HIGHEST PUMP PRICES IN THE US

Now what you gonna say? Make our beaches more of a mess and for what?

Answer please? I didn't think so! 

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Recent Observations
from: Sat 24 Feb 18 04:00 am
Spot st. augustine
canaveral east
ft. pierce
lake worth
fowey rocks
Wed 19 Feb 14 07:00 am
Observation is 35181 hours old
Sat 24 Feb 18 04:00 am
Tue 10 Oct 17 10:00 pm
Observation is 3271 hours old
Sat 24 Feb 18 04:00 am
Sat 24 Feb 18 04:00 am
Sat 24 Feb 18 04:00 am
Wind ----SE (120)
@ 11.8 kt
----n/a (n/a)
@ -- kt
E (100)
@ 18.2 kt
E (90)
@ 18.2 kt
Atmp/SST ----74.1 F/73.6 F----n/a F/74.3 F74.7 F/76.3 F75 F/75.9 F
Significant Waves ----------4.6 ft @ 14 sec----
Wind Waves ----2.6 ft @ 5 sec----3.9 ft @ 5.9 sec----
Swell ----4.9 ft @ 9.1 sec----2 ft @ 14.3 sec----
Synopsis: ....high pressure over the eastern u.s. and western atlantic will combine with low pressure over the western caribbean to bring moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes to the area along with scattered showers and a isolated thunderstorms. tropical storm nate will pass west of the area saturday, bringing fresh southeast winds to the offshore gulf waters. seas will exhibit a moderate chop with significant wave heights generally remaining at or below 6 feet. .gulf stream hazards...none. the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream is unavailable at this time.
__/(__/(__/(__( today tonight saturday saturday night


(click on a map to enlarge)
Tropical Surface Analysis
Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis Map
created: Saturday February 24, 2018 04:34 am
Tropical Satellite
Tropical Atlantic Satellite Map from the Weather Channel
created: Saturday February 24, 2018 04:34 am
WW3 Heights
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave height forecast
created: Saturday February 24, 2018 04:35 am
Click here for animation
WW3 Periods
NOAA WaveWatch3 wave period forecast
created: Saturday February 24, 2018 04:36 am
Click here for animation


Miami Tides
Tides at Miami - Click graph for other locations