Forecast for Mid June

New 'spinal column' health tip post up by Dr. Craig Kaler. Also, Friday June 19th, 2009 is our “Father’s Patient Appreciation Day”. If you are a dad or have a dad, they are doing consultations, exams, and x-rays all day for free. Space is limited. So make sure you give them a call ahead of time.

Read the post here..

Want to see a great Fathers day movie? I suggest seeing Surfwise, The Dorian Paskowitz movie. I was pleasanly surprised to see we share the same Birthday March 3rd. Does this mean I'm destine for greatness? Hell Yes! :) But where would i be without my dad? Probably in jail, or even a dead man? Last night my dad lectured me on alcoholism, even though I didn't like hearing about it he's absolutly right. Drinking every day is a bad habbit. He also told me to never talk bad about the competition, or to brag about my work. To just let people decide. Right again. I tend to brag a lot.

Shaping a surfboard out of foam is easy, next to shaping a son throughout their lifetime.

Love and Respect to all You Dad's out there!

God Bless!

Pete enjoy Chile while you can

as of the last few runs the GFS has bailed on a nice low off the carolina's.....but will wait for several more runs to call it off (since it still has a weak area of low pressure there) just that it now forecast another short wave to come out of the southern plains and ride up the ohio valley and take most of the energy..

Pete i know your busy but if you get a chance to check this comment ......let me know what you think about the potential for the nice NE "martime fetch" from the North atlantic low (that will be hangin around the 40N 50W area combining with high pressure over eastern canada..........(which is supposed to materialize in about 12 hours or so) and stick around.........any potential for swell to make the 3 day+ trip?

Just wanted to remind everyone that tomorrow, June 16 at 8pm, the Environmental Coalition of Miami Beach (ECOMB) and the Miami Beach Cinematheque are teaming up to bring you FLOW, Irena Salina's award-winning documentary investigation into what experts label the most important political and environmental issue of the 21st Century - The World Water Crisis.

FLOW is the first screening of our environmental film series called “Cinema Green” that will continue through these steamy Miami summer months with a new film each month.

Please come out to help support our Cinema Green project and learn more about the major environmental issues affecting the world we all share.

You can find out more by visiting: http://www.mbcinema.com/ or http://www.ecomb.org

Wow, models really changed over the past day or so. I see huge broad rotation but probably not enough to counter the distance and offshore winds it will encounter to get to Fla.  Look for low likelihood of surf upcoast (at least for shortboarders). It looked too good to be true for this time of year anyways.

Just posted a new video review for "days of the strange" on my blog if anyone is interested. http://www.surfskatesnowblog.com

While Big Oil sits on more than 8,000 leases to drill in our oceans, covering over 43 million acres, and reportedly holds its tankers offshore in wait for a higher oil price, its lobbyists in Washington still don't seem satisfied. Apparently they want access to every acre of ocean bottom from Alaska to Maine. Their latest battle is being waged over Florida's West Coast, an area they agreed to protect just two years ago. And we suspect they have their sights on other coastlines as well.

Tell Congress to Protect the Gulf Coast »
http://takeaction.oceana.org/c...sp?campaign_KEY=25214

Last week, a Senate committee voted to open millions of acres of the eastern Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drilling. The measure would allow drilling within 10 miles of Pensacola, and shrink the current 125-mile-wide buffer elsewhere along Florida's west coast to 45 miles. In doing so, the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources is undoing an agreement made in 2006 to protect Florida's Gulf Coast.

This move is part of a comprehensive energy bill originally designed to promote the development of renewable energy and reduce the level of climate-changing "greenhouse gases" generated by using oil and gas. However, this and other changes to the bill would undermine those goals.

The oil industry and its friends in Congress seem intent on continuing to drill off of the Florida coast in an area previously protected by an agreement they themselves negotiated and that was supported by conservationists, Republicans, and Democrats alike. They will succeed unless you act now to help. Here is what you can do.

1) Urge your Member of Congress and Senators to oppose any legislation that calls for more drilling off of Florida's coast.

2) Urge President Obama to oppose any legislation that calls for more drilling off of Florida's coasts.

Big Oil is offering Americans a "fools bargain" by pretending that more offshore drilling will lead to lower prices at the pump and greater energy security. But the U.S. government's own Energy Information Administration (EIA), reports that "access to Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030." Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, EIA points out that even in 2030, any impact on average price at the pump is expected to be insignificant.

Take Action and tell the President and your representatives in Congress to protect Florida's coasts and oppose more offshore drilling.

For the oceans,
Jackie Savitz
Senior Campaign Director,
Pollution Campaigns
Oceana

CR Surf Travel Co. "The best place to check the surf in Costa Rica" www.crsurf.com info@crsurf.com

ok this quikscat has a low off N.C and some potential albeit weak........hell a thigh high swell will make me smile

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds1...

What are the chances of them thighs walking their way down SOBE way? Or would this end up being an up-coast event as well (And why the hell dont we all live up coast anyway?)

cheers,
Waveless in Miami

K shane no it wouldn't make it down to miami (unless something changes)

If lucky .....and anything shows it will be late thurs (eve) and then fri.........N palm beach would be my best guess w/ a possible cut off (best case) around palm beach /broward border

there is potential for something of Overhead potential..... mid next week from a possible large Gale center just off mid atlantic/NE coast ....anyone want to check it just google GFS 0z .....then click on different time frames (comes out at 6z 12z 18z 0z)

I don't think I've ever seen the cams flatter. Hell there isn't even a hint of whitewater on most cams. Looks more like Golden Pond.

peace and progress!

You're the only one old enough to remember that movie. :-P

well that low from yesterday off hatteras is just about gone but did it hang around long enough to send some swell?

canaveral bouy's are picking up swell for the last 8 hours now (small yes but i'll take it)

my guess is that it is ENE swell...thigh (freak waist set ).and that it will hit treasure coast early this afternoon...........maybe palm beach...maybe just check the cams in that area a bit later

ONE MORE THING next week could be very very good depending on where this big low sets up and spins

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS FCST TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS NOAM AS TROUGHS DIG ON EACH COAST AND A COMPLEX
OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS. A STRONG CUTOFF LOW FORMS BY
MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLC STATES

thank god.. we need waves now!!! Pray for surf.

nothing as of yet in NPB

NSB was chest high and barreling with light offshores this afternoon. No class tomorrow, going to dawn patrol. I'll try and update at like 6am when I get there so you all can make the decision to drive north or not for incoming...

i'm gonna stay down south (PBC) manana....(should there be a wave here i will be pleasently surprised)....

Ft. pierce bouy shows nada on swell part.....but something on wind wave part ......has been picking up tonite with the same period and size that canaveral bouys are showing so perhaps this is the canaveral swell (that NSB got showing) i dunno.........(but it's not like it windy out so these aren't steep wind waves) but whatever

i think mid/late next week has a increasing chance of delivery the goods in a big maybe clean way

nice daddy day thought cshape. hug your dad today...who's your daddy? not me!

smile Herbie loves you

Old Man, Father, Father Figures... Daddy sounds kinda girlie Herbs... Thanks for the Mamasita shots! Always motivational ;)

don't see crap out there today (from palm beaches south)......longboardable lines north of there

Things still on track for a "good shot" next week

NE/NNE swell Thurs.....could stick around a while

Size should be good...............key is where this low sets up shop sunday/monday/tues SE of New england (hopefully far enough out to get into our swell window like GFS has been showing)

Have not updated here for some time, but I do not see that NNE swell yet. I do see a good low that will pump windy swell to the mid atlantic and up. Right now that low looks to hug the coast too much for my liking but we have to only hope this time of year for something better. Doubt it though

North palm beach saw a nice fun size knee to maybe waist high swell around noon. It was all but gone when the tide came back up. Not even a trace left. Model run hint of same or better for tomorow, which I dobt given how flat it looked around 4pm today. Also sadly the models have backed off on the big swell for next week only promising a knee to waist high something on thursday/friday. Sad these models always seem to over estimate the swell size a week in advance and slap you with reality a few days closer. oh well get it while u can!

Chris.....most of the other global models put the low in a better position (further offshore) than the GFS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html

I think it will turn out well....

Still don't see swell. But your level of optimisim reminds me of myself. Keep hoping and if not this one, then something in th carib in a few more weeks down the road after the 4th of July. Till then just think of the next central america trip

ive been at nsi for almost a month surfed almost every day small with a lot of people most of the time but nice to be somewhere with waves ive got one more week then its back to work/flatness

Dont take the models so literally that you believe every vector of every square mile. Its about potential. Look at the progression of different runs with different models and you will see. Wind shear in that area is forecast to be very low, and depending on its movement it could become ST. Low chance of waves though, i think.

Surfed North 4th St. in Cocoa Beach for ISD - props to Bruce and John and Melody for setting it up. They were painting the garbage can and putting in "keep off the dune" signs.

Waves were less than knee high, but clean. I had a Stix by Dix longboard that got me a dozen waves before SPEEDING out to Orlando to catch a flight to DC (made it with 2 minutes to spare)

Post pics to the gallery if you surfed today...

~G

Kudos to F1RST for their ISD SUP demo. My wife, kids and I all tried it and found it enjoyable on all fronts. The kids actually caught a few of the knee high swells at Sobe. They were talking about renting them and my wife was asking about pricing. Anything that gets them interested in coming to the water more only works to my advantage. Fingers crossed for next week.

still lots of *potential* with this one a mid latitude deep cool core low in late june is very strange

keep slid'n south east......you can do it.......give me some F*(K*N waves

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=B...

also latest models suggest a short wave riding around the periphery of this big ocean low.....will develop a nice litte low just NE of the bahams later on monday........I think one way or the other we get waves...........believe

Here's the radar of the system off Jersey. Waves follow Great Circle routes, and that causes Cape Hatteras to block slightly more energy from systems that appear to be in our wave window close to the Jersey shore.  About 200 miles east of the shore is where the west edge of our window is for CPB, out to Bermuda.

The radar:  http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=U...

its been two weeks. I'm going crazy.

looks like a double barrell system.........one low east of delmarva....the other well ESE of cape cod......

certainly impressive ......perhaps it will consolidate......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

i think the NNE swell window for SFL (SE of New england) would be east of line that runs 38N/70W up thru 40N/ 69W thru 42N /68 w (in order to clear hatteras) ....and any low would have to be SE of this line so that NE/NNE winds could get in the window......maybe M W of surfline would know the specifics

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/VIS/atl_v... (nice shot b4 sun goes down)

Cpick

Always doing research I like it. That satellite looks impressive but we need some slow ese movement from that low to really make it happen.
That fetch looks good for Hatt north right now. I think the best hope for a rideable wave is the ESE bermuda typical summer surf coming for the upcoming weekend. . Looks a hair more hopeful but still not looking too good.

Swell info chart has been fairly right on in close range forcast and although it over stated most of the swells last two weeks it always fixes this by down grading report a few days closer to the even and it already down graded us to knee high plus but not more for this mid week, So my expectatins have been lowered. Looks like I might be buying that SUP I've been thinking of getting for a while to take advantage of that little swell Thur and everything small past that for rest of summer.

Mr W:  You nailed it.  The models have been accurate, but out past three days they have just been wishful thinking by a computer.  Horny for Ana.

Low pres looks impressive for this time of year. It needs to drift a bit ese and we might have more to look foward to. These three indicators need to show more NNE push. Cpick what do you think?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

well it's not in the swell window right now......was for a time yesterday (prolly not long enough).......and now lets have it do a nice loop ESE after it passes close to the cape this evening

Not looking to good for us down here.
Going to Georgia/SC next week.
Anyone done any surfing up that way?
Any suggestions?

Whoa hold your horses! Don't even know who you are. Just because I don't post anything doesn't mean I don't check the surf report. Sucka! lol :) ( I gotta admit that comment made me crack up)

surftheinlet06, yeah I can read the reports.
I know the beach is all the way at the east side of the states in question.

Just wanted a little inside scoop on the area.
Glad you got a chuckle...

Wildcat,

My comment was for "gosurfeen" He seems a bit excited this week and I don't even have a clue who he is :)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds1...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds1...

we need a expert to read and interpret the stupid swell windows in S FL

first one stuff just east of new england looks pointed this way....i dunno
second one have to keep an eye on that NNE stuff along the SE part of hatteras....that's a shot in and of it's self

surftheinlet: Ana will be our first named storm, and we want her to come sooner, rather than later.  I'm a grom that learned to forecast surf in 1967. Still no decent swells on the horizon, and we need that to change real soon.

gosurfeen, your the oldest grom to grace the pages of DadecoSurf!  Most appreciate your forecasting as well as cpick's and Pete's (I know I do...). I learned to forecast in the 80's, still a time when you had to be a Phd weather guru to obtain the information we all have at our fingertips today.  Back in '83, I was 14, my brother (RIP) was 16.  No friends up coast, no concrete surf reports (besides Bird's), certainly no cameras, nothing but a wing and prayer and a "take your shot" approach towards answering the question that so many ask on these pages and take for granted (How are the waves going to be up coast tomorrow? Hell, how are the waves going to be for the weekend?, etc.).  We just got in our car and drove!  I guess what I'm trying to say is many of us would not have the skills to predict and understand the models of today without having learned the hard way back then.  So, to all the friends in DadecoSurf who don't know how to read the basic weather maps to give you the fundamental understanding of wave prediction here, then it's time to do so.  Too much instant gratification is not always a good thing.  Sort of like trying to formulate basic to complex math on an Excel spreadsheet without ever doing that same math on paper and figuring out the answer. 

While there's not much (if anything) to talk about wavewise in So. and Central FL, and not much in site either, time to consider a quick escape to surf somewhere else.  There's a steady 180 - 185 degree swell (almost straight South) hitting South and Central America as we speak.  Peru's got the goods happening (maybe a little more than what some may bargain for (11 - 15 feet @ 16 sec's) ; full suit/booties are a requirement). So does most of Central America (3 - 8 feet @ 18- 16 sec's) ; but you need to ba careful as many spots work bettwer on a SW swell than straight South).  If you got the time, and you got the dime,then go for it, because we could be in a wave dire situation here for a little bit. 

My name is ANA ha ha ha! That's why I freaked when I saw that! Thanks for clearing it up! :)

Free surf reports from our friends in Brevard County were obtained by having the live telephone operator make a collect, "person to person" call to a friend's number.  We would ask for, say, "Gerry Lopez" and that was the code name.  Our friend would say, "he's not here, but He'll be back at 3 or 4", and that was the code telling us it was 3 to 4 feet.  There would be no charge for the call, and we would head north. 

Fetch, speed and duration is still the gold standard for forecasting, and always will be.

Anna = Girl........ Are girls alowed on this site?

naggo if they let you on here im pretty sure women are ok

OMAL!

gosurfeen, that's pretty classic!  lol

thats nothing gosurfeen. I bet you ¨Gerry Lopez¨ couldnt tell you the degree of the wind, the weather, time between sets, trend in height, or how many hot bikini girls are on the beach. I remember back in the day we had the most super secret ingenious creative mindboggling complex intricate f*cking system of reporting surf that it makes a NASA scientist look like a telletubby. Even though the daily surf report was staring everyone in the face, no one noticed. It lasted many years, and took about 5 years to perfect the method. Within seconds we could know whether it was firing or flat! I cant tell you what it is though, sorry. Its hidden in some classified files in the CIA. Yea, the CIA.

Marc - mc ..."Back in the day".surf report ...call Jacks stand that was in the parking lot of the old dog track at 1st street.

Amen Mr. B. I remember days before the internet and beach cams. We would all load into a van at 4am and head over to the Inlet to make dawnpatrol. If it was going off we surfed if it was flat we skimmed or drank till lunch time. It was hit and miss but it was fun. A few days away from gettin my SUP , yippy!

SurfMIA, 15 years later and you still cant figure it out hehehe. You gonna give yourself a migraine if you try any harder.

Recent model runs showing a little wave in E tropical atlantic 5-7 days from now. Im not gonna try to predict anything this far out, but if conditions turn out to be right, we could get something. Its a long shot, but its something to hope for when its flat.

We've been hopeing and waiting on long shots for the past four weeks. Why stop now. Right.

I'm up in Virginia Beach visiting the folks and I surfed dawn patrol at the jetty. It was knee to waist with 1 or 2 chest high mushy set waves and the tide killing it. Still though, at least there was something to paddle into and I had to represent SoFla. I'll be checkin it again manana at 5:30 a.m. when the wind is supposed to cooperate a little more.

Back in flat MB by Friday, then have some volunteer work in Puerto Cabezas for all next week. (Carib side of Nica) 50/50 on bringing a board.

Hope ya'll get some - usually waves come to Florida when I'm out of town.

~G

call me crazy but i wouldn't be shocked if a north east swell showed up today.....believe it

i'll be the guy drinking and praying at the beach........half kidding

well it did....from CPB north.....rideable nothin crazy......who knows if anything bigger is en route....from far up north.....bouy east of carolina has been pickin up 10 sec beteen 4-6 feet since 7 am so....perhaps somethin even more "surprising wed

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001